← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4906129
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 71.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability71.0%
Bid / ask / mid69.0¢ / 70.0¢ / 69.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 69/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 33% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,303
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$30,505 / $17,860
Imbalance33% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score69.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.33
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 15h.
Time to resolve144d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.