← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5104731
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 3.6¢ / 2.8¢
Spread1.6¢ (57.1%)
Change 24h+1.25pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$138
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$84 / $18
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.