← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5104732

Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?

2.4% implied · bid 1.1¢ · ask 3.6¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.4%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 2.5¢ spread.

Implied probability8.4%

Bid / ask / mid1.1¢ / 3.6¢ / 2.4¢

Spread2.5¢ (106.4%)

Change 24h+0.80pt

Change 7d-1.70pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43 / $2

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score37.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean5.22

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.56pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 419d 15h.

Time to resolve419d 15h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (30)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.