← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5104763
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid76.0¢ / 77.0¢ / 76.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,770
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,139 / $2,253
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.30
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.