← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5105099
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.2%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability1.2%
Bid / ask / mid1.1¢ / 1.4¢ / 1.3¢
Spread0.3¢ (24.0%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d-1.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$282
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $77
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.86
RSI (14, hourly)32.1
Realized vol 7d1.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.