← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5105110
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.1%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability96.1%
Bid / ask / mid95.4¢ / 96.6¢ / 96.0¢
Spread1.2¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h+0.40pt
Change 7d+26.95pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,849
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,316 / $53,068
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.02
RSI (14, hourly)50.4
Realized vol 7d2.47pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.