← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5139753
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 85.0¢ / 84.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,510
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,464 / $2,921
Imbalance28% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.52
RSI (14, hourly)69.6
Realized vol 7d1.00pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.