← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5139754
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 69.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability69.0%
Bid / ask / mid71.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 73.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (5.5%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$695
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$329 / $936
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)56.0
Realized vol 7d1.32pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.