← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5139755
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$296
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$315 / $542
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.04
RSI (14, hourly)21.4
Realized vol 7d2.28pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.