← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5154349
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.9%, down 5.2pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability16.9%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 12.8¢ / 12.4¢
Spread0.8¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-5.25pt
Change 7d+1.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$455
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$378 / $214
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.71
RSI (14, hourly)19.6
Realized vol 7d1.11pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 10h.
Time to resolve81d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.