← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5154351
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.5%, up 3.2pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability9.5%
Bid / ask / mid5.6¢ / 8.4¢ / 7.0¢
Spread2.8¢ (40.0%)
Change 24h+3.15pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$983
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$477 / $477
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.65
RSI (14, hourly)53.2
Realized vol 7d0.67pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 10h.
Time to resolve81d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.