← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194687
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 59.1%, down 18.9pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability59.1%
Bid / ask / mid58.9¢ / 59.1¢ / 59.0¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h-18.85pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$723
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$188 / $49
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13
RSI (14, hourly)17.0
Realized vol 7d2.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 14h.
Time to resolve64d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.