← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194688
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.4%, up 8.5pt over 24h, on a 6.8¢ spread.
Implied probability20.4%
Bid / ask / mid19.6¢ / 26.4¢ / 23.0¢
Spread6.8¢ (29.6%)
Change 24h+8.50pt
Change 7d-2.55pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 16/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$183
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$33 / $41
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score16.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 94 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.68
RSI (14, hourly)93.5
Realized vol 7d0.90pt
Change 1h+2.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 15h.
Time to resolve64d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.