← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194689
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 7.5¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 9.9¢ / 6.2¢
Spread7.5¢ (122.0%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+1.65pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 13/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$95
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $2
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score12.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 85 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.61
RSI (14, hourly)84.7
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 15h.
Time to resolve64d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.