← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5375147
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-7.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,143
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,778 / $3,971
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.02
RSI (14, hourly)70.0
Realized vol 7d1.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.