← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5420002
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 62.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability62.0%
Bid / ask / mid58.0¢ / 63.0¢ / 60.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (8.3%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 27/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,194
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$212 / $3,746
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 91 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.94
RSI (14, hourly)90.9
Realized vol 7d0.97pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 15h.
Time to resolve8d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.