← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5426238
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (10.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,276
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,590 / $5,849
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.78
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.54pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 14h.
Time to resolve144d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.