← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5458444
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 29.0¢ / 27.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (10.9%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,612
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$106 / $100
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.66
RSI (14, hourly)37.5
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.