← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559652

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12.0% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 12.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 12.1%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability12.1%

Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 12.1¢ / 12.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.8%)

Change 24h-0.45pt

Change 7d-4.10pt

Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,713

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$223,231 / $46,805

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.62

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.15pt

Change 1h-0.10pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 731d 16h.

Time to resolve731d 16h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (25)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.