← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559653
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.5%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability17.5%
Bid / ask / mid17.4¢ / 17.5¢ / 17.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h+0.20pt
Change 7d+0.85pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,787
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$223,144 / $48,747
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.37
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 731d 16h.
Time to resolve731d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.