← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559661
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.2%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability27.2%
Bid / ask / mid27.2¢ / 27.3¢ / 27.3¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d+11.75pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$100,085
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$312,291 / $105,334
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.07
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.93pt
Change 1h+0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 731d 16h.
Time to resolve731d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.