← Explore · Polymarket · Market 559706
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.1%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability1.1%
Bid / ask / mid1.1¢ / 1.2¢ / 1.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h+0.60pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,029,296
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,653 / $7,594
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score54.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.50
RSI (14, hourly)54.5
Realized vol 7d0.31pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 730d 10h.
Time to resolve730d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.