← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561229
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.6%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability18.6%
Bid / ask / mid18.5¢ / 18.7¢ / 18.6¢
Spread0.2¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-1.95pt
Change 7d+0.10pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$87,286
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$144,373 / $54,818
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.39
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.70pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 731d 16h.
Time to resolve731d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.