← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561261
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.1%, down 3.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability18.1%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 18.1¢ / 18.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h-3.10pt
Change 7d+8.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$220,683
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$334,327 / $62,021
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.70
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.59pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 731d 16h.
Time to resolve731d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.