← Explore · Polymarket · Market 561979
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.4%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability14.4%
Bid / ask / mid14.2¢ / 14.3¢ / 14.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+10.60pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$154,434
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,716 / $10,736
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.25
RSI (14, hourly)70.0
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 731d 16h.
Time to resolve731d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.