← Explore · Polymarket · Market 562016
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.9%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.9%
Bid / ask / mid2.8¢ / 3.9¢ / 3.4¢
Spread1.1¢ (32.8%)
Change 24h+1.95pt
Change 7d+3.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$115,642
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,684 / $905
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.69
RSI (14, hourly)60.9
Realized vol 7d0.63pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 730d 10h.
Time to resolve730d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.