← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691087
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 4.7¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid0.9¢ / 5.6¢ / 3.3¢
Spread4.7¢ (144.6%)
Change 24h+0.95pt
Change 7d+1.90pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 27/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,937
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22 / $17
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score26.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.87
RSI (14, hourly)71.1
Realized vol 7d0.16pt
Change 1h+1.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.