← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691089
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.1%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability10.1%
Bid / ask / mid5.9¢ / 6.8¢ / 6.3¢
Spread0.9¢ (14.2%)
Change 24h-1.60pt
Change 7d+2.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,076
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$119 / $82
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.69
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d1.30pt
Change 1h-0.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.