← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691223
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (40.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$259 / $65
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.69
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.