← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691225
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 35.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (8.5%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$111
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$324 / $187
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.83
RSI (14, hourly)63.6
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.