← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691229
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 44.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability44.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 42.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (7.1%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$538
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$872 / $1,319
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.20
RSI (14, hourly)62.5
Realized vol 7d0.61pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.