← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5765621
Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.9%, up 15.3pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability18.9%
Bid / ask / mid18.1¢ / 21.0¢ / 19.6¢
Spread2.9¢ (14.8%)
Change 24h+15.25pt
Change 7d+15.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,786
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$58 / $44
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.61
RSI (14, hourly)63.6
Realized vol 7d1.62pt
Change 1h+0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 15h.
Time to resolve6d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.