← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5765896
Another candidate is the 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 73.7%, up 2.2pt over 24h, on a 10.1¢ spread.
Implied probability73.7%
Bid / ask / mid59.1¢ / 69.2¢ / 64.1¢
Spread10.1¢ (15.7%)
Change 24h+2.25pt
Change 7d+61.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,448
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 41 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.83
RSI (14, hourly)40.5
Realized vol 7d2.67pt
Change 1h+3.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 3h.
Time to resolve23d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.