← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5784291
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 74.0%, up 10.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability74.0%
Bid / ask / mid70.0¢ / 72.0¢ / 71.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.8%)
Change 24h+10.00pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,647
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,807 / $5,134
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.29
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.44pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.