← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5880782
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 2.1pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 3.7¢ / 3.4¢
Spread0.7¢ (20.9%)
Change 24h-2.15pt
Change 7d-4.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$55,520
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,760 / $7,999
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 30 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.59
RSI (14, hourly)30.3
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.