← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5926149
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (14.3%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-44.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 37% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,762
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,344 / $1,582
Imbalance37% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.01
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.74pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.