← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5939179
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.8%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability97.8%
Bid / ask / mid98.1¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.6¢
Spread0.9¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h+0.60pt
Change 7d+33.55pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 62% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$8,392
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,180 / $22,346
Imbalance62% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score61.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.74
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.20pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.