← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5971398
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.3%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability86.3%
Bid / ask / mid83.5¢ / 85.5¢ / 84.5¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+0.75pt
Change 7d+24.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 36% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,330
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,131 / $5,700
Imbalance36% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.05
RSI (14, hourly)82.2
Realized vol 7d1.87pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.