← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5994303
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (37.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-7.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$111 / $6
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.59
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.41pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.