← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5997211
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid57.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 58.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d+27.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,749
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,109 / $467
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.09
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d3.81pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 15h.
Time to resolve8d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.