← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5998480
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 42.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability42.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 42.0¢ / 41.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-12.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,613
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,233 / $4,837
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.44
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.90pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.