← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6017460
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 6.0pt over 24h, on a 6.2¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.6¢ / 18.8¢ / 15.7¢
Spread6.2¢ (39.5%)
Change 24h+6.05pt
Change 7d-0.80pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 19/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$598
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$49 / $2
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score19.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.69
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 15h.
Time to resolve15d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.