← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6017628
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 79.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability79.0%
Bid / ask / mid79.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 80.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.7%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 53% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$609
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$304 / $396
Imbalance53% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.67
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d3.05pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.