← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6017630
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 26% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$90
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$502 / $1,240
Imbalance26% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.