← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6044505
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.3%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability1.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 1.7¢ / 1.5¢
Spread0.4¢ (26.7%)
Change 24h+0.35pt
Change 7d-3.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,411
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$154 / $390
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.69
RSI (14, hourly)81.8
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 15h.
Time to resolve8d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.