← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6083708
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.8%, up 1.7pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability97.8%
Bid / ask / mid98.5¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.8¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+1.65pt
Change 7d+91.05pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 74/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 90% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$9,993
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$41,376 / $12,358
Imbalance90% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score74.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)75.5
Realized vol 7d7.30pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.