← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6083709
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.3%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 1.2¢ / 1.1¢
Spread0.2¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-1.15pt
Change 7d-12.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,722
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$17 / $1,528
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.78
RSI (14, hourly)24.1
Realized vol 7d6.91pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.