← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6094934
Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.8%, down 13.2pt over 24h, on a 11.1¢ spread.
Implied probability31.8%
Bid / ask / mid16.3¢ / 27.4¢ / 21.9¢
Spread11.1¢ (50.8%)
Change 24h-13.25pt
Change 7d+16.25pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,557
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.52
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d6.97pt
Change 1h-1.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.