← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6094935
Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 73.4%, up 17.8pt over 24h, on a 9.5¢ spread.
Implied probability73.4%
Bid / ask / mid73.4¢ / 82.9¢ / 78.1¢
Spread9.5¢ (12.2%)
Change 24h+17.80pt
Change 7d+69.80pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 3/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,394
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$41 / $100
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score2.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.67
RSI (14, hourly)66.5
Realized vol 7d6.43pt
Change 1h+0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.