← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6096679
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.0%, down 13.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h-13.50pt
Change 7d-15.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,703
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$125 / $146
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.05
RSI (14, hourly)25.8
Realized vol 7d4.34pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 13d 1h.
Time to resolve13d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.